Economic Modelling, Macroeconomic Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis for Central Banks Training Workshop

Course overview

The Economic Modelling, Macroeconomic Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis for Central Banks Training Workshop equips central bank economists, monetary policy analysts, macroeconomic researchers and forecasting teams with advanced practical skills in economic modelling, econometric analysis, macroeconomic projections and policy scenario evaluation. The workshop focuses on developing, estimating, validating and applying economic models to analyse inflation, GDP growth, output gaps, interest rates, exchange rates, monetary aggregates, fiscal developments and external-sector dynamics.

Participants explore modern forecasting and policy analysis systems, structural and reduced-form econometric models, quarterly projection models, vector autoregression, Bayesian estimation, time-series forecasting, nowcasting, macrofinancial modelling and AI-assisted predictive analytics. Emphasis is placed on combining model-generated evidence with economic theory, expert judgement, alternative assumptions and uncertainty analysis to support credible monetary policy decisions.

Course objectives

Develop and estimate macroeconomic models for inflation, economic growth, output gaps, interest rates and exchange-rate analysis.
Integrate AI-assisted nowcasting, predictive analytics, model validation and uncertainty analysis into central bank forecasting and policy research workflows.
Conduct monetary policy scenario analysis, sensitivity testing and shock simulations to assess the implications of domestic and external economic developments.
Design and strengthen Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS), including quarterly projection models and model-consistent forecasting procedures.
Apply advanced econometric and time-series techniques to produce, validate and compare short-term and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts.

Who should attend

Central bank economists, monetary policy analysts, macroeconomic forecasting specialists, economic research officers, quantitative analysts, econometricians, financial stability analysts, reserve management economists, inflation analysis teams, national accounts analysts, monetary statistics officers, economic modelling specialists, senior policy advisers, researchers in ministries of finance and economic planning, and professionals responsible for macroeconomic surveillance and policy evaluation.

Course content

Module 1. Foundations of Economic Modelling and Central Bank Forecasting The role of economic models in monetary policy, macroeconomic forecasting frameworks, model-based policy analysis, economic theory and empirical evidence, model selection and specif
Module 2. Macroeconomic Data Architecture, Preparation and Statistical Analysis Macroeconomic data sources and statistical systems, GDP and national accounts data, consumer price indices and inflation measures, monetary and credit aggregates, interest ra
Module 3. Advanced Econometrics and Time-Series Forecasting Stationarity and differencing, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, ARIMA and SARIMA models, vector autoregression (VAR), structural VAR, cointegration and error-correction models, state
Module 4. Structural Macroeconomic Models and Quarterly Projection Models The structure of semi-structural macroeconomic models, aggregate demand and IS relationships, Phillips curves and inflation dynamics, output-gap estimation, potential output, expec
Module 5. Inflation Modelling and Forecasting Headline and core inflation, inflation decomposition, demand-pull and cost-push pressures, food and energy price dynamics, inflation expectations, exchange-rate pass-through, imported inflation, wage and pric
Module 6. GDP Growth, Output Gaps and Economic Activity Forecasting GDP expenditure and production approaches, high-frequency indicators of economic activity, potential GDP estimation, output-gap measurement, labour market indicators, industrial producti
Module 7. Monetary Policy Transmission and Interest Rate Modelling Monetary policy transmission mechanisms, policy rates and money market rates, lending and deposit rate transmission, credit channels, bank lending conditions, money supply and credit grow
Module 8. Exchange Rate, External Sector and International Shock Modelling Exchange-rate determination, nominal and real effective exchange rates, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, exchange-rate pass-through, foreign interest rates and globa
Module 9. Fiscal–Monetary Interactions and Macrofinancial Modelling Government revenue and expenditure, fiscal deficits and public debt, sovereign financing conditions, fiscal multipliers, fiscal impulse analysis, government borrowing and private-secto
Module 10. Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS) Architecture of a central bank FPAS, forecasting calendars and institutional responsibilities, data preparation and model updates, baseline projection development, conditioning assumptions, model-
Module 11. Nowcasting, High-Frequency Indicators and AI-Assisted Forecasting GDP and inflation nowcasting, mixed-frequency data models, Dynamic Factor Models, bridge equations, Bayesian VAR, machine learning for macroeconomic prediction, regularised regr
Module 12. Forecast Evaluation, Model Validation and Uncertainty Analysis Forecast errors and bias, mean absolute error, root mean squared error, out-of-sample evaluation, rolling and expanding forecast windows, benchmark models, forecast combination, ba
Module 13. Macroeconomic Scenario Design, Stress Testing and Shock Analysis Baseline and alternative scenarios, domestic demand shocks, food and energy price shocks, exchange-rate depreciation, global interest-rate increases, trade disruptions, climate-r
Module 14. Advanced Model Estimation, Computational Methods and AI Governance Maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation and priors, parameter identification, numerical optimisation, model diagnostics, computational efficiency, reproducible analy
Module 15. Integrated Central Bank Forecasting and Policy Analysis Capstone Development of an integrated macroeconomic dataset, estimation and comparison of forecasting models, construction of baseline GDP and inflation projections, output-gap and exchan

General notes

Practical Exercises and Case Studies Prepare and validate a macroeconomic dataset covering GDP, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and external indicators. Estimate and compare ARIMA, VAR and error-correction models using historical macroeconomic data. Develop a quarterly inflation forecast using econometric modelling and expert assumptions. Construct a GDP nowcasting model using monthly and quarterly economic indicators. Estimate an output gap and examine alternative measures of potential GDP. Analyse the transmission of policy interest rate changes to lending rates, credit growth and inflation. Model exchange-rate depreciation and its effects on domestic inflation and the current account. Simulate oil price, food price and global interest-rate shocks under alternative macroeconomic assumptions. Develop baseline, optimistic and adverse macroeconomic scenarios for policy consideration. Evaluate forecast accuracy using out-of-sample testing and benchmark models. Generate prediction intervals and fan charts to communicate uncertainty around macroeconomic projections. Prepare an integrated forecasting report and monetary policy briefing for a simulated policy
Critical Tools and Software EViews, Stata, MATLAB, Dynare, R, Python, Jupyter Notebook, statsmodels, linearmodels, scikit-learn, PyMC, NumPyro, XGBoost, pandas, NumPy, MATLAB Econometrics Toolbox, MATLAB Optimization Toolbox, Bayesian estimation and simulation tools, specialised quarterly projection model frameworks, central bank forecasting and policy analysis systems, statistical databases, version-controlled analytical workflows and institutional data governance tools. Tool selection should reflect the institution's existing modelling environment, licences, technical capacity and data-security requirements. Participants should focus on the software relevant to their assigned analytical tasks rather than attempting to master every package.
Practical Outputs and Deliverables A structured macroeconomic dataset and data-quality checklist, macroeconomic model specification and estimation framework, inflation forecasting model, GDP growth and economic activity forecasting model, output-gap estimation template, quarterly projection model framework, monetary policy transmission analysis, exchange-rate and external-shock sensitivity model, fiscal–monetary scenario analysis template, baseline and alternative macroeconomic projection framework, forecast evaluation and model validation scorecard, prediction intervals and fan charts, AI-assisted nowcasting prototype, macroeconomic scenario and stress-testing framework, integrated Forecasting and Policy Analysis System workflow, monetary policy briefing note with evidence-based recommendations, institutional forecasting improvement roadmap.
Central Bank Economic Forecasting Course, Macroeconomic Modelling Training, Monetary Policy Analysis Training, Quarterly Projection Model Training, Forecasting and Policy Analysis System Training, Advanced Econometrics for Central Bank Economists, Inflation Forecasting Course, GDP Forecasting and Nowcasting, AI in Macroeconomic Forecasting.
Strengthen institutional forecasting and monetary policy analysis capabilities through the Economic Modelling, Macroeconomic Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis for Central Banks Training Workshop. Learn advanced econometric modelling, inflation and GDP forecasting, quarterly projection models, monetary policy transmission, AI-assisted nowcasting, forecast validation and macroeconomic scenario analysis for evidence-based central bank decision-making.
Recommended Reference Resources IMF, Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/087/2021/026/article-A001-en.xml IMF, Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/practical-model-based-monetary-policy-analysis-a-how-to-guide-18842 Bank for International Settlements, Artificial Intelligence and the Economy: Implications for Central Banks: https://www.bis.org/publications/aer-2024/artificial-intelligence-economy-implications-central-banks

Frequently asked questions

1. 1. Who should attend this workshop?

The workshop is designed for central bank economists, monetary policy analysts, forecasting specialists, macroeconomic researchers, econometricians and professionals involved in economic surveillance, policy modelling and forecasting.

2. 2. Does the workshop cover practical economic modelling?

Yes. Participants work through model specification, estimation, forecasting, validation and interpretation using macroeconomic datasets and practical central bank case studies.

3. 3. Which economic variables are covered?

Key variables include inflation, GDP growth, output gaps, policy interest rates, exchange rates, monetary aggregates, credit growth, fiscal indicators, commodity prices and external-sector developments.

4. 4. Does the workshop include AI and machine learning?

Yes. The programme covers AI-assisted nowcasting, machine-learning-based forecasting, alternative data analysis, model interpretability and forecast validation alongside established econometric approaches.

5. 5. Will participants develop a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System?

Participants develop a practical FPAS framework and work with its key components, including baseline projections, alternative scenarios, model-consistent forecasts, uncertainty analysis and policy briefing materials. Full institutional implementation depends on available data, resources, existing systems and the central bank's requirements.

6. 6. Which software is required?

Depending on the participant's role and institutional environment, the workshop can use EViews, Stata, MATLAB/Dynare, R or Python-based econometric and forecasting tools. The final software combination should be agreed before delivery.

Schedule & fees

Dates	Location	Duration	Fee (USD)
09/08/2027 - 20/08/2027	Accra,Ghana	10 Days	$4,500
06/09/2027 - 17/09/2027	Lusaka,Zambia	10 Days	$4,500
25/10/2027 - 05/11/2027	Nairobi,kenya or Virtual	10 Days	$4,000
22/11/2027 - 03/12/2027	Rwanda,Kigali	10 Days	$4,500